InFi: The Future of Finance

Dr. Robert P. Murphy

130 episodes

EP 71

The Yield Curve Has Uninverted; Does It Signal Recession?

Bob explains that the yield curve has gone back to a "normal" upward sloping configuration, with 10-year Treasuries yielding more than the 3-month T-Bill. Bob reviews the historical pattern and the theory behind it, and also provides an estimate of when the next recession will hit. Related: - https://mises.org/understanding-money-mechanics/inverted-yield-curve-and-recession - https://mises.org/podcasts/human-action-podcast/why-government-relief-spending-only-makes-recession-worse - https://content.infineo.ai/articles/the-yield-curve-uninverts

About the Show

Where economics meets innovation

Hosted by Dr. Robert P. Murphy — American economist, author, and Chief Economist at infineo — InFi explores emerging trends in finance, life insurance, asset management, and technology.

Each week, tune in for dynamic discussions with business pioneers about the forces shaping modern finance. New episodes drop every Thursday.

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InFi: The Future of Finance

Perry Metzger on AI Threats: Real vs. Phony

Unpacking Trump's Trade Embargo Warning to the Federal Reserve

The Pros and Cons of the Treasury Long-Bond Buyback

The Yen Bailout Shows the Failure of Keynesian Policies

Can Capitalism Work in a Finite World?

The Connection Between Government Budget Deficits and Inflation

Why Mamdani Marts Will Hurt Poor New Yorkers

The Myth of "Wildcat Banks" in US History

Alex Tabarrok on the Economic Analysis of Crime

Sorry Mamdani, Rent Control Doesn't Work

The Gold Standard Did NOT Cause the Great Depression

Alan Greenspan's Fed Fueled the Housing Bubble

Detailing Dube's Dubious Defense of Minimum Wage Hikes

Shaking Up Brent Johnson's Commentary on the Triffin Dilemma

Lecture 1: Introduction to Money

Richard Murphy Is Wrong About Government Debt

Robert Rapier Explains US Refiners Could Process Shale Oil, But Better To Export It

The Fed's Reverse Repos Solve Two Puzzles of Monetary Policy

Yes, US Debt Surpassing GDP Is a Big Deal

The US Oil Position and Understanding Foreign Policy Moves

Hank Paulson Warns of Looming Treasury Crisis

Why Not Let AI Data Centers Build Their Own Power Plants?

Tony Garcia on Lessons from the Drift Heist

Do Large Language Models "Act" in the Austrian Economics Sense?

Good & Bad Developments in AI & Blockchain

Gasoline Prices Should Rise, Even If US Is Oil Self-Sufficient

The Economics of the Iran Conflict

Yes, Grocery Prices Have Risen Rapidly—But Why?

Comparing Gold vs. Bitcoin

Mushrooming Debt, Crashing Population: the Spread of "Japanification"

Dan McCarthy on California's Foolish Billionaire Wealth Tax

What Gives the US Dollar Its Value?

Are AI Data Centers Using Too Much Electricity?

Trump's Moves to Lower Credit Card and Mortgage Rates Will Have Different Impacts

Anirudh Pai on Stablecoins, Free Cities, and Prediction Markets

Key Takeaways from the Weinstein-Murphy Interview on Reforming Economics

Australian Bitcoin & Austrian Econ

Murphy's Macro Outlook for 2026

Eric Weinstein on the Application of Gauge Theory to Economics

Make Money Metal Again?

Recap of Murphy Remarks on Stablecoins at Benzinga 2025

Banking Risk & Stablecoins, with Alex Pollock

Arthur Laffer vs. Milton Friedman on Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates

Stablecoins & AI: Drew Benson Interviews Murphy

Could Bank-Issued Money Be Based on Equity Rather Than Debt?

Why Argentina's Milei Asked the US Treasury for a Bailout

Thinking Consistently on H1B Visa Reform

Rex Tracer is Putting Cool Cars on the Blockchain

Treasury Secretary Bessent's Critique of the Fed's "Gain of Function"

Thinking Clearly on Money & Debt

The Ominous Precedent of Trump's Intel Deal

The Social Function of Institutional Real Estate Buyers

Pros & Cons of Various Ways to Revalue Government Gold

The Economics of Global Bitcoin Adoption

Yes, Stablecoins are Like "Free Banking" in US History—and That's a Good Thing

Does the GENIUS Act Pave the Way for CBDCs?

Why the GENIUS Act Is Stricter on Stablecoins than Banks

Nicki Sanders on the GENIUS Act and the Future of USD Stablecoins

Bob Murphy Lays Out an Aggressive Yet Feasible Fiscal Reform

Robert Bryce Explains Chinese Domination of the Magnet Market

Does Saving Equal Investment? Economics vs. Accounting

Refereeing the Conservative/Libertarian Battle Over the Big Beautiful Bill

George Selgin on Bitcoin as Store of Value or Medium or Exchange, and What Ended the Great Depression?

Moody's Was Right to Downgrade the US Treasury

Cade Bergman on the Utility of X Spaces and the Future of Crypto

Tom Pyle on Trump's Energy Agenda, and Why the Tech Bros Flipped on Climate Change

Explaining the LifeNotes Advantage for Split-Dollar Life Insurance Plans

Oren Cass Challenges Free Traders on American Manufacturing

Could the Trump Administration Revalue the Treasury's Gold?

Ricardo's Assumptions Don't Hold, But Trade Still Makes US Richer

Abe Lincoln and John Carney Are Wrong About Tariffs

Everybody's Wrong About Trump's Tariffs

Economic Problems Made in the USA: Analyzing Lighthizer Trade Talk With Tucker

Did the Department of Education Boost American Test Scores?

Did Silk Road Founder Ross Ulbricht Try to Hire Hit Men?

Financing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and How Private Sector Could Deal with ETH Heist

Explaining Elon: Social Security as a Ponzi and Government Spending Distorting GDP

DOGE & Social Security Fraud

Jack Farley on Why Money Matters and the Contribution of the MMT Camp